Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 12.032832 14.101658 16.369069 19.031814 22.066064 25.408662 29.362153
2025-01-05 8.779675 11.437915 14.619849 18.681715 23.698540 29.659281 37.241705
2025-01-12 6.927043 9.856482 13.626728 18.773941 25.547851 34.080252 45.550053
2025-01-19 5.623441 8.643920 12.783060 18.765925 27.068348 38.040358 53.464657
2025-01-26 4.978477 8.173579 12.790249 19.787924 29.930038 43.864126 64.166280
2025-02-02 4.415463 7.702705 12.687857 20.574386 32.455551 49.346436 74.736476
2025-02-09 3.987320 7.354865 12.691964 21.467086 35.150429 55.198836 86.168893
2025-02-16 3.445457 6.724860 12.157635 21.438765 36.409879 58.998960 94.826540
2025-02-23 2.887151 5.969213 11.308755 20.786410 36.595444 61.145505 101.095442
2025-03-02 2.401410 5.258977 10.433947 19.970275 36.402410 62.636030 106.383790
2025-03-09 2.114599 4.875527 10.076059 19.980180 37.535299 66.239162 115.121974
2025-03-16 1.882068 4.560014 9.797476 20.087670 38.817578 70.131714 124.507527
2025-03-23 1.663791 4.244659 9.492035 20.135677 40.037546 74.065762 134.317427
2025-03-30 1.398719 3.779289 8.831164 19.441355 39.867484 75.644315 140.325390
2025-04-06 1.236756 3.518342 8.548149 19.441091 40.952385 79.426155 150.243896
2025-04-13 1.093375 3.274043 8.265517 19.404683 41.952508 83.101524 160.159967
2025-04-20 1.048194 3.267710 8.499233 20.448268 45.099016 90.784265 177.466407
2025-04-27 0.988873 3.213586 8.617345 21.254939 47.831978 97.857488 194.031295
2025-05-04 0.940985 3.181676 8.781560 22.172541 50.845119 105.601017 212.162025
2025-05-11 0.841314 2.984802 8.528710 22.143169 51.923794 109.775918 223.992402
2025-05-18 0.720126 2.698437 8.016913 21.471995 51.610451 111.272588 230.937910
2025-05-25 0.607728 2.411799 7.460948 20.632280 50.859805 111.857172 236.172277
2025-06-01 0.546423 2.274288 7.272869 20.642465 51.934130 116.062377 248.445559